Cleveland-Cliffs Stock (NYSE: CLF) has been on a downtrend for over a month. The stock, which currently trades at $ 20 per share, has fallen more than 6% in the past week alone, compared to a 3% drop in the S&P 500. If you look at the change over the past month, CLF stock is sharply down 18%, underperforming the broader market which is down more than 5%. The stock of CLF has declined in recent weeks following a drastic drop in global iron ore prices. Iron ore prices have fallen more than 17% in the past month. From its peak of $ 230 / tonne in July 2021, the price of iron ore per tonne has halved to $ 117 today. The drop in prices is mainly due to declining imports from China following its decision to control steel production to meet carbon emission standards. Second, China’s second-largest real estate company – Evergrande – recently announced that it was struggling to sell assets fast enough to pay off its growing debt load. The announcement raised fears of the prospect of defaults and a domino effect in the Chinese real estate market. This in turn would have a significant negative impact on the demand for steel and iron ore. In addition, the trade dispute between China and Australia, which is China’s largest supplier of iron ore, has also contributed to the decline in iron ore prices.

Now, is the CLF stock on the verge of falling further or can we expect a rally? We believe there is a 55% chance of a rise in CLF stock in the next month (21 trading days) based on our machine learning analysis of stock price trends in the next month. over the past ten years. See our analysis on Risk of an increase in the CLF share. For more details on CLF’s historical returns and how the returns are compared to peers, see Cleveland-Cliffs stock performance.

21 days: CLF -18%, vs S & P500 -5.4%; Underperformed market

(15% chance of event; 55% chance of increase over next 21 days)

• CLF action decreased by 18% the last twenty-one trading days (one month), compared to a broader market decline (S & P500) of 5.4%
• A change of -18% or more in twenty-one trading days is a 15% probability event, which has occurred 388 out of 2,516 times in the past 10 years
• Of these 388 cases, the stock experienced a positive movement over the next twenty-one trading days on 215 occasions.
• This indicates a 55% chance that the stock will rise over the next twenty-one trading days

Ten days: CLF 0.4%, vs S & P500 -1.2%; Outperformed market

(48% probability event; 48% probability of increase over the next 10 days)

• CLF action increased by 0.4% over the last ten trading days (two weeks), compared to a wider market decline (S & P500) of 1.2%
• A change of 0.4% or more over ten trading days is a 48% probability event, which has occurred 1,213 times out of 2,516 in the past 10 years
• Of these 1,213 instances, the stock has seen a positive movement over the next ten trading days on 578 occasions
• This indicates a 48% probability that the stock will increase over the next ten trading days

Five days: CLF -6.4%, vs S & P500 -3.1%; Underperformed market

(24% probability event; 46% probability of increase in the next five days)

• CLF action decreased by 6.4% over a five-day trading period ending 4/10/2021, versus the broader market decline (S & P500) of 3.1%
• A change of -6.4% or more over five trading days (one week) is a 24% probability event, which has occurred 595 out of 2,516 times in the past ten years
• Of these 595 cases, the stock has seen a positive movement over the next five trading days on 273 occasions
• This indicates a 46% chance that the stock will rise over the next five trading days

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