US Steel Corp – Trefis
US Steel Corp Stock (NYSE: X) has fallen more than 20% in the past week alone (five trading days). Over the past month, the stock has lost around 6.6%, but the 20% drop in value has been very steep. The main reason for this drop was the news from China. In an effort to combat rising prices for finished products at its factories (and shrinking profit margins for its producers), China’s National Food and Strategic Reserve Administration has announced that it will release metal in batches in the near future. Copper and aluminum held in strategic government stocks have been specifically identified as targets for action, as well as zinc, which is used for galvanizing steel. China’s announcement has resulted in lower base metal prices, which is bad for companies like US Steel as it means more price competition from China.
Compared to X’s 20% drop, the broad S&P 500 has only fallen 2% in the past week. When looking at the development over the past month, the X share fell 6.6% against a 1% rise for the S&P 500. Now is the X share about to fall more or can we expect a recovery? We believe that there is a 55% chance that the X share will fall in the next month (21 trading days) based on our machine learning analysis of stock price trends over the years. last ten years. See our analysis on X Risk of a fall in equities for more details.
21 days: X -6.6%, vs S & P500 1.1%; Underperformed market
(32% chance of event; 45% chance of increase over next 21 days)
- United States steel inventory decreased by 6.6% the last twenty-one trading days (one month), compared to a wider market rise (S & P500) of 1.1%
- A change of -6.6% or more in twenty-one trading days is a 32% probability event, which has occurred 794 out of 2,515 times in the past 10 years
- Of these 794 cases, the stock experienced a positive movement over the next twenty-one trading days on 357 occasions.
- This indicates a 45% chance that the stock will rise over the next twenty-one trading days
Ten days: X -14%, vs. S & P500 -1.7%; Underperformed market
(10% chance of event; 42% chance of increase over next 10 days)
- United States steel inventory decreased by 14% in the last ten trading days (two weeks), compared to a wider market decline (S & P500) of 1.7%
- A change of -14% or more over ten trading days is a 10% probability event, which has occurred 255 times out of 2,517 in the past 10 years
- Of these 255 cases, the stock has seen a positive movement over the next ten trading days on 106 occasions.
- This indicates a 42% probability that the stock will increase over the next ten trading days
Five days: X -21%, vs S & P500 -2.1%; Underperformed market
(Extremely rare event)
- United States steel inventory decreased by 21% over a five-day trading period ending 6/18/2021, compared to a broader market decline (S & P500) of 2.1%
- A change of -21% or more over five trading days (one week) is an extremely rare event, which has occurred 15 times out of 2,517 in the past ten years
Out of 794 cases in the last ten years where United States Steel (X) stock has fallen 6.6% or more over 21 days, 437 of these have resulted in the X stock falling in during the following one month period (21 trading days). This historical pattern reflects 437 out of 794, which is roughly a 55% chance that Stock X will fall over the next month.
While the X share may have moved a lot, 2020 has created a lot of price discontinuities that can provide some exciting trading opportunities. For example, you will be surprised at how the valuation of stocks for Compass Minerals vs Southwest Gas shows a disconnect with their relative operational growth. You can find a lot of these discontinuous pairs here.
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