Global copper market to face deficit in 2022 despite projected production growth – report
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(Kitco News) – According to Norilsk Nickel (Nornickel), the global copper market in 2021 was fairly balanced, with copper demand picking up on the back of the global economic rebound, while the United States and China announced expansion plans. multi-trillion infrastructure.
Global demand for copper has been boosted by the growing importance of the ESG agenda, as governments and investors around the world have begun to pay greater attention to copper-intensive technologies, such as renewable energy, l electrification of transport and the reduction of GHG emissions, which has led to a decrease in trade. stocks and price spikes.
Nornickel said that as a result, the average LME copper price in 2021 rose 51% year-on-year to $9,317 per tonne.
The company added that on the supply side, despite some issues in copper mining, refined metal production has increased enough to meet higher demand.
As for 2022, Nornickel said the copper market is expected to see a slight deficit of 82 kt in 2022 as global consumption will increase thanks to the continued post-COVID global economic recovery and increased investment in energies. renewables and the electrification of transport.
“Although we expect mining production to increase in 2022, the increase in refined metals production will not be sufficient to meet demand, in our view,” the company noted in a report. “In our view, the copper market will remain broadly balanced in the near term, showing a deficit of less than 1% of global consumption (or 82 kt).”
Nornickel said that in 2022, global copper consumption is expected to increase by 3% to 25.1 Mt as major economies continue their recovery from the global pandemic and the ongoing deployment of intensive clean energy technologies. copper and decarbonization plans.
In 2022, global mine production is expected to increase by 4% to 22.3 Mt due to the ramp-up of new mines in the DRC and Peru and also due to the expansion of existing projects.
Nornickel also expects refined copper production to increase by 2% to 25 Mt in 2022.
The company pointed out that in the longer term, copper demand will benefit greatly from the race to carbon neutrality which will require a massive upgrade of basic energy infrastructure.
Importantly, the Company believes that currently the number of probable copper mining projects is too small to meet future demand, which could lead to a significant market shortfall if no new projects are launched in the future. over the next 2 to 3 years.
Norilsk Nickel is a diversified mining and metallurgical company, the world’s largest producer of high-quality palladium and nickel, and a major producer of platinum and copper. The company also produces cobalt, rhodium, silver, gold, iridium, ruthenium, selenium, tellurium, sulfur and other products.
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